India-Pakistan War: How Far Will Xi Jinping Go to Shield Pakistan from Modi’s Response?

The recent Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir has reignited tensions between India and Pakistan, pushing the nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink. On April 22, terrorists targeted tourists in the scenic valley, killing 26 civilians, including a Nepali national. The Resistance Front (TRF)—widely believed to be a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)—initially claimed responsibility before abruptly retracting the statement.

India-Pakistan Fallout: Strategic and Diplomatic Tremors

India responded with swift and decisive measures: it suspended key elements of the Indus Waters Treaty, tightened border controls, and downgraded diplomatic ties. In retaliation, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian flights and escalated rhetoric over water rights. Meanwhile, ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) surged, with daily cross-border fire highlighting the volatility of the region.

This renewed confrontation has raised international alarm over strategic stability in South Asia, particularly given the nuclear capabilities and unresolved hostilities between both countries.

China’s Strategic Dilemma: Balancing Loyalty with Limitations

Amid rising instability, the crisis puts China’s regional calculus under intense scrutiny. While Beijing has long branded Pakistan as its “iron brother,” its response in this instance reflects strategic restraint rather than unqualified support.

Following the attack, the Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi offered condolences, but Beijing avoided any direct condemnation or clear stance. Shortly thereafter, China and Pakistan proposed an “impartial meeting,” a suggestion India swiftly rejected. At the UN Security Council, China backed Pakistan diplomatically—but carefully avoided escalation, signaling a measured and cautious posture.

Expert Insights: China Reassesses Its South Asia Policy

Leading Chinese analysts confirm this recalibration. Lim Wang, Deputy Director at the Center for South Asian Studies, Fudan University, noted that China's role in the India-Pakistan conflict is “likely to remain limited.” He observed that India views China as a peer rival, rejecting any mediation that could diminish its strategic standing.

Wang emphasized that China now prioritizes preventing Pakistan’s internal collapse over using it as a counterweight to India. Similarly, Lu Xiang, Director at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, advocated for peace talks but admitted that neither Washington nor New Delhi would accept Chinese mediation. Lu also highlighted concerns over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—a core Belt and Road Initiative project—underscoring Beijing’s strategic exposure in Pakistan.

Constraints on China’s Power Projection

Beijing’s limited maneuverability stems from internal and external pressures. India’s strategic autonomy and absence from the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in Brazil signal a widening gap with Beijing. At home, China grapples with a real estate crisis, economic slowdowns, and fallout from the U.S.-China trade war.

Militarily, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is overstretched—balancing reforms, its assertive posture in the South China Sea, and sustained tension along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India. A two-front conflict involving both the U.S. and India remains a strategic nightmare Beijing seeks to avoid. Meanwhile, North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia further complicates China's traditional influence networks.

Strategic Takeaways: What India Can Leverage

Given these constraints, China’s role in the India-Pakistan crisis will likely remain symbolic and diplomatically constrained. While Beijing may continue extending economic support to Islamabad, direct military involvement or provocation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) appears improbable.

For India, these geopolitical realities offer tactical advantages. By recognizing China’s internal vulnerabilities and external diplomatic caution, New Delhi can recalibrate its dual-front strategy—countering the immediate threat from Pakistan while managing its complex ties with China through strategic engagement and global alignment.

How Far Will Xi Jinping Go to Shield Pakistan from Modi’s Response?

That question lies at the heart of China’s dilemma. Xi must balance ideological loyalty to Pakistan with strategic pragmatism—aware that open confrontation with India could amplify China’s internal crises and disrupt its long-term global ambitions. As Modi signals decisive action, Beijing may be forced to choose between symbolic solidarity and the risk of real consequences.

South Asia’s Faultlines in a Multipolar World

This crisis does not unfold in isolation. It lies at the intersection of regional fragility, great power competition, and China’s recalibrated ambitions. As Beijing balances loyalty to Pakistan with the risks of alienating India, the future of South Asia hinges on how these powers navigate the widening geopolitical cracks.

So far, India has pursued a calculated, multi-dimensional strategy—rooted in strategic clarity, proactive diplomacy, and national readiness. Under the firm leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India appears determined to deliver a decisive response—targeting Pakistan’s terror infrastructure without compromising its geopolitical position. This points to a 360-degree campaign—diplomatic, economic, informational, and covert—crafted to isolate and pressure Pakistan across multiple fronts.

Will India Respond Militarily?

Yes—in some form. While a full-scale war remains unlikely, India is expected to undertake precise and calibrated military operations. This time, Pakistan’s generals—long protected by nuclear deterrence and global indifference—may face direct consequences. The message from New Delhi is clear: terror will no longer go unanswered, and the cost of proxy warfare is set to rise—perhaps sharply.

Disclaimer: This article draws inspiration from Lt Gen P.R. Shankar’s insights shared on his YouTube channel Gunners Shot. To explore the full discussion, watch the complete video podcast.